Racing Selections; Thursday 24th May

Posted on May 24, 2012 by

Selections for Thursday from Goodwood and Haydock are posted below. Tuesday was a frustrating day, with two of the selections running not much of a race at all. White Diamond may pick up a race at some point, as she did shape that she might be effective at further. Armiger was pretty lifeless and a career away from racing looks to be his next calling, especially as he can hardly fall much further down the weights. West Leake was the “one that got away”. He finished 3rd but was inconvenienced by stumbling out of the stalls, alongside the fact that they didn’t go that quick up front. Those who were prominent were suited and West Leake did best of those held-up. He’s still on a workable mark but needs everything to go his way, so on Tuesday (at a price of 16’s), it was the right (value) call to back him but at a shorter price, unless a strong pace is absolutely guaranteed, then he’s probably worth avoiding.

CITRUS STAR (15:10) needs 7f, a good pace to aim at and quick ground, he gets all three today and although he’s a bit of a character, he should run really well off what looks an extremely lenient turf handicap mark. A winner over C&D in 2010 off 6lbs higher, he struggled for a while afterwards but slowly started getting it together again towards the end of last season, culminating in a victory off a rating of 92 on polytrack debut at Lingfield, winning with what looked like plenty in hand.  He was far from disgraced next time out in a Conditions event and although he was beaten 43 lengths on seasonal reappearance, that effort was over a trip too sharp, ground too soft and ran in the wrong group, so it’s an effort worth completely writing off. He’ll strip fitter for that anyway and the handicapper has bizarrely dropped him 4lbs for it, which is very generous and he looks well-handicapped both on his recent all-weather form and his best turf exploits. Quick ground and 7f is paramount to his chance on turf and he gets both of those today, alongside a track he obviously handles and the assistance of William Buick, who is 2/7 for the Chris Wall stable, can only be viewed as a positive. The inclusion of the also well-handicapped Primaeval means that we get a decent price on Citrus Star today and he should go very well, especially given plenty is in his favour conditions wise. Although his attitude can sometimes be a problem, the price today warrants a bet and he’s a good couple of points overpriced in my book, calling for a standard win bet.

MARFORD MISSILE (15:30) has his first start at 7f here today but has the pedigree to stay the extra furlong and shaped that it would be within reach on his penultimate start. He won that day with plenty more in hand than the handicapper has given him credit for and if he does stay 7f, then he’s more than capable of taking this contest. The selection was sharp enough to win over 5f on debut, but his juvenile career didn’t go on for too long, finishing 2nd in the Lily Agnes at Chester in May 2011 being his final start of the season.  Gelded in the meantime, he wasn’t seen for 10 months in public but made a winning reappearance at Kempton over 6f in March. Held-up in a slowly run, small-field contest, he did well to win and was hardly given a hard-time in doing so, looking to do the business with plenty more up his sleeve. Richard Kingscote reported after the race that he’d improve again for another furlong, a statement backed up by his pedigree (dam won at 1m2f, half-sibling to winners at 7f-1m2f) which gives more encouragement that he can stay today’s distance. Surprisingly he was kept to 6f at Chester last time out, where he stood no chance given the way the race played out. He was slowly away, clipped heels early on and looked ill at ease on the exceptionally testing ground, not a surprise given he had a decent level of form on a faster surface. Today he races over much more favourable conditions, given the quick ground and I think it all depends on whether he has the stamina for the trip. The way he won at Kempton suggested he would stay it and also that he has plenty up his sleeve in the handicapping department. I think he might be capable of running to a mark of 90 in the very near future and with Kieran Fallon on board a noteworthy booking (0/11 for the yard, but has been their jockey of choice for stable-star Brown Panther so is obviously highly thought of at Manor House Stables), Marford Missile looks set for a big run. I have him at around the 7/1 mark, so the current price look very appealing.

Bets

15:10 Goodwood – Citrus Star; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill (bog)

15:30 Haydock – Marford Missile; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)

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Racing Selections; Tuesday 22nd May

Posted on May 22, 2012 by

Selections for Tuesday are found below. Monday was a tad frustrating, especially as we got such a good price on Purification. He was eventually sent off 9/2cf and looked for a time as if he was going to get in front, trading 1.5 in the process. He suffered a bit of interference and was possibly scared out of the finish. He wasn’t unlucky though and doesn’t particularly shape as if one to follow.

WHITE DIAMOND (15:30) hasn’t been in bad form on her last two starts and was subject of a slightly too aggressive ride in a more competitive race this at Doncaster. Although untested at Brighton, the track should suit her and she’s still on a decent handicap rating, so has every chance of going close in a wide-open race.  A winner over hurdles last season for Malcom Jefferson, she started life for the Michael Appleby stable with a very positive effort at Wolverhampton over 1m4f, running really well into 2nd and looking she still had some  scope for progression. This case could also be made by the fact she had some fair form last year over these sorts of trips running off marks in the 70’s, so it’s entirely plausible that she’d improve a tad from a rating of 68. She about ran to that mark last time out in an Amateur Riders Handicap, possibly being sent for home too soon and passed with relative ease by the front-three. She stuck on well enough for 4th though and that was a much more competitive race than this one today, so she has definitely got a form chance. Brighton as a track should suit her, as her two wins have come on the fairly idiosyncratic tracks of Navan and Fakenham, so she doesn’t mind today’s sort of test and this is her trip, so she’s more than capable of going well. William Carson continues to impress in the saddle and rides for the first time for the Michael Appelby yard, a possible pointer in itself. This mare is overpriced, given she should enjoy Brighton given her past form and the track favouring those who like to be ridden prominently, she’s still well-handicapped on some of last year’s form and enjoys a sound surface. She should be around the 8/1 mark I feel, and is worth backing until that sort of price.

ARMIGER (17:30) likely enters the last chance saloon today given he’s only rated 49 and can hardly fall much lower, but I’ve always thought they’d be a race in him at some point and although his last three efforts have been abhorrent to say the least, I’ve found enough excuses to suggest that he could be worth a bet today if those excuses are legitimate. He looked like a horse that had a bit of a future on his first couple of starts but slowly dropped down the handicap ranks as a juvenile, not particularly showing a great deal. That being said, his effort on seasonal reappearance was far from shoddy and indicated there was a race within him, finishing the race well over 6f. He looked like he’d come on bundles for that but hasn’t at all. His next start could well have just been an awful run as he never looked happy, while his subsequent two outings I think were particularly poor due to soft ground, and next time an adverse reaction to blinkers, forcing him to do too much in front. That headgear has been discarded and I’m willing to give Armiger one more chance. He should be at home on a sound surface and certain efforts over 6f, as well as his pedigree suggest that this 7f trip should be within range. He might have lost the plot entirely but William Carson is a positive booking (last rode this horse when it was sent off 5/1). If I’m right about the reasons for his last three poor runs, a bold show would not surprise.

WEST LEAKE (20:30) returns to his best trip tonight and has fallen to an extremely workable mark given that he’s been running at the wrong distances on his four starts in 2012. Back under the right conditions and dropped in grade, he has every chance of putting up a big performance tonight. A three-time C&D winner, he’s won at a trip of a mile before (at Lingfield) but unless they go really quickly early on, he pulls far too hard over that trip and fails to get home. That pretty much sums up the story of the majority of recent efforts, especially his latest start over that mile trip. West Leake isn’t a complete lost cause form wise however, as his penultimate start when dropped to the slightly too sharp distance of 6f was promising, staying on well and still shaping that ability was still present. This is his first start at 7f this year and he’s now 8lbs lower than when he last tried this trip, alongside that he’s 3lbs lower than his last C&D victory. He’s a horse who always tries his best unless given an aggressive front running ride and enjoys being held-up off a strong pace over this sort of trip, so with the likes of Dvinksy and Fenella Fudge in attendance, a decent gallop should ensue. If it does and West Leake settles nicely in the rear, then he has every chance of really close off a mark of 60. He’s easily capable of running to about 70 when everything falls his way (often doesn’t) but with that more likely today and the price making it a risk worth taking, then he’s definitely a bet. In a race where there’s likely going to be a decent gallop, over his best trip and back to a workable handicap rating, West Leake will go well.

Bets

15:30 Brighton – White Diamond;  1pt @ 11/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)

17:30 Brighton – Armiger;  1pt @ 40/1 William Hill (bog)

20:30 Kempton – West Leake; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

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Racing Selections; Monday 21st May (Evening)

Posted on May 21, 2012 by

Monday’s selections for a race at Windsor this evening posted below. Friday was the last day of posting and both selections ran pretty poorly. Waldvogel was a bit of a nuisance in the preliminaries but looked to have every chance 2f out, but his effort faded and he finished well-held. There’s definitely a race in him somewhere, but he’ll likely have to go to a less competitive level than the one he ran in last time. Key Gold ran too bad to be true, able to set the fractions in front and looked to have a decent chance. She finished very poorly and it may just have be that she isn’t actually that good.

Although PURIFICATION (20:10) was well-beaten on seasonal reappearance 23 days ago, he shaped with more promise than the bare form suggests and he’s more than capable of hacking up off this mark of 85, especially as he had looked a promising sort at one time. It’s interesting that connections persevere and he’s worthy of a bet at a double figure price. He’s had five starts to date and showed a high-class level of form in two of those, finishing 2nd behind Genius Beast on his final start in 2010, which is fairly strong form and then winning his maiden over 10f quite convincingly. He shaped that day as if further would suit and was sent off the relatively short price of 8/1 in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, he looked inexperienced and faded tamely, eventually beaten 73 lengths. He wasn’t seen from then until last month having been gelded and although beaten 14.5 lengths, it wasn’t an abhorrent run. He saw plenty of daylight, was sent wide for his challenge and was hardly given a hard time in the closing stages, over a trip that is probably on the sharp side. In theory, he should have come on bundles for that outing and I’m expecting much better today. Purification handles faster ground, the gelding operation should have improved his attitude if nothing more and he’ll be all the better for his seasonal reappearance. The 3lb drop in the handicap is of obvious benefit and it may be that today we’ll see something like the best of this one, especially as he had previously looked to have a lot of potential. Although it may be that he didn’t train on, he’s worthy of a bet at a double figure price, especially with William Buick back aboard and conditions to suit, with the slight step up in trip also of benefit.

Bets

20:10 Windsor – Purification; 2pts @ 12/1 Bet365 (bog)

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Racing Selections; Friday 18th May

Posted on May 18, 2012 by

Selections for Friday’s racing are below. Wednesday was a poor day for the blog with all three of the selections failing to make the frame. Labarinto was too bad to be true, having played up in the preliminaries and although it may be that he was racing on the slowest part of the track, it was a truly dismal effort. New Planet hit traffic problems but would have never been good enough on the day, and probably needs to find a weak listed event or conditions event again to get in front. King Kurt ran no sort of race but was one of the bigger drifters of the day and was held-up, which isn’t ideal. He remains one to keep an eye on when encountering a slightly easier contest. Selections below.

Although he hasn’t won on the flat since 2007, and that win coming in Germany, WALDVOGEL (14:00) comes into this race off an attractive looking mark, fitter than the bare form suggests after an outing in a charity race at the Aintree Festival and over what could well be ideal conditions, he’s more than capable of playing a big role in the finish. A listed winner in Germany in his younger days, he’s getting on a bit but seemed to be as good during the summer last year, going very close at this C&D in July off a 2lb higher mark.  Ideally he wants a sound surface I think and although he ran well in competitive handicaps at Ascot (not beaten far) and back here at York, I just think the combination of the higher rating and the softer surface meant he didn’t stand much of a chance of winning. His penultimate effort of the 2011 season needs excusing as he was held-up off a very modest pace and while his last start was pretty abysmal, he’d had a long season by his standards and was possibly just feeling the pinch.

In the Racing Post, it claims he’s been away from the track for 219 days and if that was so, fitness would be an issue but it fails to point out that he ran well enough in a Charity Race at Aintree. That was over 1m5f and although the form shouldn’t be read literally, at least he had an outing on course about a month ago which would have blown any cobwebs away. Waldvogel enjoys the 1m4f of York and a sound surface and he gets both of these today and he’s attractively handicapped from this rating, as he’s more than capable of running close to a mark of 100 if he’s back to somewhere close to last year’s best. There are of course some more unexposed animals in the line-up but this sort of price is well worth taking, as he’s hilariously overpriced in my book (I’d take 12/1). It might be just that he’s a perennial loser on the flat, but he does know how to win races having done it over hurdles in the more recent past and Andrea Atzeni is one of the more capable jockeys who can do a low weight, so this horse is definitely interesting today in an open race.

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Three year-old early season middle-distance handicaps are often tricky puzzles to solve and with a raft of big yards involved today, this is definitely one of them. KEY GOLD (16:45) won her maiden last time out over this trip with a minimum of fuss, even though she didn’t seem to appreciate the soft conditions that day. It’s likely that she’s well-in off a mark of 72 and definitely stays the trip, thus looking overpriced in this contest. She’s had four starts, shaping as though these trips would be her forte over a mile on her second outing and confirming that when staying on strongly over 10f at the beginning of this year. She was a warm order for her reappearance effort kept to maiden company, upped in trip again to 12f. That will prove not to be the strongest of heats in time but she did well to win, especially as he wasn’t overly extended and seemed to be uncomfortable on the soft surface, changing her legs on occasions and not looking completely happy. Both this and her pedigree suggest better ground will suit, which obviously bodes well for today. The handicapper hasn’t moved her for that success and I think she’s been underestimated in that respect, especially as there is definitely more to come over this trip and on a better surface. Plenty here come in with chances, either looking like they’ll appreciate the extra distance (Estedaama and Daneking) or are possibly well-handicapped (Priestley’s Reward) but Key Gold should be around the 5/1 mark, given I still think there’s more to come and given she’s a bigger price than that currently, worthy of a small investment.

Bets

14:00 York – Waldvogel; 2pts @ 25/1 Boylesports, William Hill (bog)

16:45 York – Key Gold; 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

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Racing Selections; Wednesday 16th May

Posted on May 16, 2012 by

Selections for Wednesday’s action from York, posted below. Friday was the last day of posting and it was the first profitable day in a while with Pintura managing to survive a stewards enquiry to hang on at Chester. Personally, we were lucky to keep the race I feel as the interference was quite major to the eventual runner-up. However, Pintura deserved a change of luck and so did we, so I’ll take it. 6/1 was a lovely price. Unfortunately, King Zeal couldn’t land us another winner and managed 2nd. He was ridden with a bit more restraint which was the right move as there was a fair amount of pace involved and he just ran into one, that being the well-handicapped favourite. He did nothing wrong but is unlikely to be much of a price for a little while, but he’s probably worth keeping an eye on around tracks such as Nottingham and Haydock. There was supposed to be selections for Saturday on the blog but as some of you might have read on my Twitter (@joshfletch), there was a power-cut and I was unable to post them. Luckily for those who didn’t read the tweet, they both came 2nd. I’ve been looking forward to this meeting for a while and I must add, I’ve done my best to make sure prices are accurate but this blog will have been posted automatically at 9am (for a few reasons), so hopefully there isn’t a huge market move in the time between hitting ‘submit’ and the post going online.

Although on last time out form LABARINTO (13:30) wouldn’t have a chance, that run was all wrong for a yard that at the time, were out of sorts. That can’t be said now and returned to better ground and his optimum trip, I’m hoping for much better.  He made solid progress in handicaps last season, rising from an opening mark of 87 to his current rating of 97, running some big races without a win over this 10f trip before finally succeeding off a mark of 93 at Goodwood. That was a performance of some note, especially as it came in a race that generally favoured those up with the pace and not many got into the race. The horse he beat was a decent yardstick and Labarinto looked destined for better things.  Sent off a 7/2f for the Dubai Duty Free handicap at Newbury, he dropped away when chasing an overly quick pace, emphasised by the fact that the first four home all came from off the pace. It wasn’t overly encouraging but was definitely worth putting a line through, and his seasonal reappearance should attribute similar comments. Although a winner on soft ground in a Maiden, I don’t think it’s a surface that suits a horse with his action ideally and running on testing ground on reappearance can often find a horse out. That race was over a mile too, a trip on the sharp side and with the Sir Michael Stoute yard going notably poorly at that point in time, it’s fair to say he’ll have benefitted from the outing.

Now back up in trip, on better ground, and for a yard now amongst the winners, it’s fair to say that better is definitely expected. He remains potentially a close to pattern-class animal on his form when winning at Goodwood and with reasonable excuses since then, he’s definitely worth chancing especially in a field where there isn’t an abundance of younger progressive types. Flag Officer would be the main danger on paper but he’s been off for a long while and I don’t particularly rate his trainer a great deal at this time of the year. Although not an outlandishly big price on first glance, I feel confident that we’re yet to see the best of Labarinto and off what still be a very generous mark, he’s worth backing into about the 9/2 mark.

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Although carrying top-weight in a sprint handicap isn’t ideal, NEW PLANET (14:00) has shown form to suggest he still retains plenty of his ability that he showed as a juvenile and after not an ideal three year old campaign, he still looks capable of running to around a level of 110 if getting a strongly run race which is more than likely in a big-field handicap such as this one. He’s far too big a price today and should be more like single figures, so he’s definitely worthy of a bet. He was highly tried as a juvenile, placing in a Group 2 at Doncaster and that subsequently made him difficult to place last season, especially when there’s a distinct lack of opportunities for sprinters of that age. He ran respectably in a handicap over this C&D off 5lbs higher, and in a Conditions event at Doncaster, but the season ended quite prematurely in late July and it seems that they’ve decided to save this horse for this campaign, where there’s an abundance of opportunities.  Gelded in the meantime, he returned to winning ways first time out at Warwick, in what wasn’t the greatest of races. He did it well though and showed that he was perfectly capable of running to a decent level of form as an older horse. This was subsequently backed up when finishing 5th last time out in a listed contest. Although beaten by 5.75 lengths, the race was run at a very modest pace and New Planet got caught flat-footed and probably ran as well as he could in the circumstances.  He does best when they go a nice pace and although there isn’t an abundance of front-runners in the race, with 20 runners going to post it is fair to say that they’ll likely go a fair clip. Although carrying a big-weight, I wouldn’t have said he’d be out of his depth at a couple of grades higher than this, and this has been a race where winners have gone on to be Group race animals, Hoof It and Borderlescott being two examples. New Planet is lightly-raced enough to have the scope to go on to a better grade than this and he’s far too big a price at these double-figure odds. He should be more like 9/1 in my book and he’s worthy of a 2pt bet, even though races like this are devilishly difficult to solve, given there could be draw and pace biases that only become known post-race.

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KING KURT (15:35) is 7lbs higher than his last winning mark but he still retains the scope to progress further at around this 1m4f trip. His reappearance effort should have put him spot on and I think a win from this mark is entirely possible, so he’s a horse worth following until he proves otherwise. Kevin Ryan’s charge was twice a winner in 2011, once at this 1m4f trip. His last victory came off 7lbs higher and it was a resounding success over 1m2f, where although he was slightly fortunate that the race panned out perfectly (was handy in a slowly-run race), he stayed on extremely strongly and looked a horse that could definitely be competitive off ratings much higher than the one he is currently at.  He was well-beaten on his next two starts, but the second being in decent company and he probably ran as well as could have been expected. His final start of the 2011 campaign was a creditable one on soft ground over 1m5f. Although quite slowly run, it more or less proved that this trip was within range, as he had on occasions looked that he might not stay a strongly run contest at 1m4f.

King Kurt’s seasonal reappearance was far from disgraceful and it’s entirely plausible that this big price has been attributed to that seemingly “poor run”. For a start, it was on really testing ground which for a seasonal reappearance is obviously not ideal. More patient tactics were employed and he was keen early on, and it’s fair to say he wasn’t knocked about in the closing stages. He still made a modicum of ground and with that run under his belt; I feel he’s definitely capable of further progression. He’ll stay the 1m4f trip, will likely appreciate the better ground today and he is still unexposed at these sorts of distance. A draw in stall 20 might not be seen as ideal but the winner of last year’s renewal came from a similarly wide berth and they have long enough to sort themselves out before meeting a bend. If he’s ridden more prominently today, which in a race with this sort of prize-money, would be more likely, a bold show is far from out of the equation. I think he is more than capable to run to a mark of 90 or so, and with his reappearance effort possibly setting him up for this sort of race, then he’s definitely worth a bet at a big price. I’d be taking prices up to about 10/1 or so for this one.

Bets

13:30 York – Labarinto; 2pts @ 8/1 William Hill, 7/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)

14:00 York – New Planet; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

15:35 York – King Kurt; 2pts @ 16/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

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Racing Selections; Friday 11th May

Posted on May 11, 2012 by

Sunday was again a frustrating day for the blog, this time in the shape of Rock A Doodle Doo getting no run whatsoever and being bullied out of the race. They didn’t go all that quick which was a surprise given there was plenty who were capable of making the running but the selection still travelled well and had every chance. He got bullied out of it after encountering trouble in-running and only finished very moderately, the lack of recent run/interference probably leading to her downfall. She was well-backed (into 7/1) so better was expected and I’m definitely willing to give her another chance when a good pace is assured and racing over 1m4f. I’ve had exams this week so had little time to post blog entries, which is a tad frustrating. I had planned a post on Tuesday but missed the early price day and it sluiced in, while another I would have put up was backed off the boards but could only manage third. That was Cubanita and she’s definitely a filly to watch out for on a more conventional track than Chester. Friday’s selections below.

PINTURA (13:35) comes into this race off the back of two poor runs in high-class 1m handicaps but is much better than he showed then and has subsequently fallen to a good mark. With conditions and track to suit, alongside the drop back in trip which will bring about improvement and he has every chance at a price that is quite simply far too big. His last victory came off a mark of 80 but he has gone incredibly close on four occasions subsequently and is easily capable of running to ratings close to 100, as shown when putting in a bold effort at York last August, when narrowly run down late over a mile. He’s a tough and consistent type when allowed to sit prominently so I don’t think that prominent tactics used on his three starts in 2012 quite suit. It’s likely that he’ll have been lined up for this sort of handicap given connections and I big run shouldn’t be too far away over these conditions. Soft/heavy ground isn’t a bother on him, his last victory actually coming on ground deemed as ‘heavy’. He enjoys Chester having a course record of 932, the runner-up effort coming in this renewal last year off a 1lb higher mark. It’s definitely not out of the question that Pintura will be able to get an easy lead and dictate the pace from a good draw, especially as there’s very little in the way of front-runners and Jamie Spencer is a dab hand at getting the best from these types. At the prices, Pintura rates as an obvious bet as I’d have him at around the 4/1 mark in these sorts of conditions. He’s nicely handicapped, handles the ground and track and should get the race run to suit. Even if he doesn’t lead, he’s still more than capable of playing a big part and although Kyllachy Star is a big danger in a race that he won 12 months ago but the ground as it is might not suit him ideally and at the price, he’s worth taking on. Dubai Dynamo could also play a part but it isn’t that competitive a contest for a Class 2 event and Pintura is the one to be on.

KING ZEAL (20:30) returns to the flat after a decent time of it over hurdles and he’s actually on a fair handicap rating, especially considering he’s 1lb lower than his last flat success. He’s often shown that he can be a notch better than this grade and did seem to be in reasonable form over hurdles before a fall on his last start. With conditions not a problem and the race likely to be run to suit, this looks a fair opportunity. King Zeal has a 2/3 record over this C&D and although they came off much lower ratings, it emphasises the fact that he’s at his best on a left-handed, galloping track (his other two wins on the flat came at the similar course of Haydock). A winner on soft ground on the flat, he’s also placed on heavy going over hurdles so the prevailing conditions at Nottingham today shouldn’t be of any concern.  He generally started to struggle when running off handicap ratings in the mid-70’s but his last run over ideal conditions (on an galloping track over 10f) saw him run a respectable race from a mark of 72 and I’ve no doubt that he’s more than capable of capitalising from this rating of 69 now the handicapper has given him a chance, as long as that fall last time out over hurdles hasn’t left its mark. Previous to that he’d looked to be in good form and fitness definitely won’t be an issue. Barry Leavy’s runners over the past two weeks have form figures of 21, so he looks to have his small string going well and King Zeal should definitely have the race run to suit, as there isn’t much in the way of pace and he’s a fairly uncomplicated ride, merely bowl along in front and gallop all the way to the line. The booking of Royston Ffrench fills me with dread as he isn’t the greatest unless riding in the UAE but this horse has so much in its favour that I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt this time. He should be around the 7/1 mark and a double figure price is well worth investing in. The yard also run Mighty Clarets and it will be interesting to see how the market goes but I’m confident that we’re on the right one from this yard and hopefully he’ll run really well with plenty to suit.

Bets

13:35 Chester – Pintura;  2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports (bog)

20:30 Nottingham – King Zeal; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

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Racing Selections; Sunday 6th May

Posted on May 6, 2012 by

Just the one selection for Sunday’s racing, coming from Newmarket. Saturday was a disappointing day with all four bets failing to provide any return and all of them finishing unplaced. Silenceofthewind was well-backed on the exchanges and went off a single figure price, he travelled really well (traded at 2.50) but never found anything once asked a question and then hung badly. He just looks a bridle horse and he needs them to go ridiculously quickly up front, something they didn’t do today. That being said, he’s not one I’ll be following. Al Khan was restless in the stalls and never went a yard. It’s a run that’s worth putting a line through and I just hope that the experience won’t mentally scar him, as he’s still got a lot of potential to be a very competent sprinter. Wannabe King is probably the one to take out of the day, even though his finishing position looks on paper, useless. He was held-up, something that doesn’t suit and he was still on the bridle when encountering trouble, with his rider deliberately going for a gap that wasn’t there. The softer ground won’t have suited either and back on a genuine decent surface, in a valuable handicap and perhaps with a more positive jockey booking (Silvestre De Sousa a likely candidate for this yard), he’ll be winning races off his likely revised rating in the high 80’s. The Nifty Fox held every chance but faded tamely into last. He’s lost the plot completely.  As a side-note, I haven’t advised anything in the 1000 Guineas and I just feel it’s too tough a race to call. Lyric of Light is interesting at double figure odds, as is Moonstone Magic if she continues to drift in the betting. That being said, there’s even some big outsiders capable of making the frame, such as Alla Speranza (who would be a bet in the Epsom Oaks if the ground was soft) and the likes of Starscope, which this race might come too soon for but will be winning Group races in due course. I’d probably like to put about six selections up, but that isn’t really feasible and I’ve just decided to let it slide from a blogging point of view.

ROCK A DOODLE DOO (14:05) almost looks too good to be true, given he handles soft ground and looks to be on a very workable mark. His yard are yet to have a winner in 2012 but he is still worthy of investment, especially as she’s gone well fresh in the past and looks to need a big-field handicap like this one to show his best. An improver on the all-weather in 2010, he was only seen five times on turf last year but made a striking impression on more than one start. His win on fast ground over this trip at Ascot was taking, not getting the best of runs but still winning, and showing that a decent pace in a big-field was what he really needs. This was followed subsequently by a really unlucky run at Royal Ascot, where he was hampered and blocked in on numerous occasions before finally getting a clear run. It came all too late but he did ridiculously well to finish only 4 lengths behind Fox Hunt that day and importantly, that start came on soft ground which should mean today’s conditions are no problem. He had excuses on his next two starts, not staying further at York and then being given far too much to do back to 1m4f at Ascot and this has meant he’s now 3lbs lower than the aforementioned Royal Ascot effort, so he looks obviously well-handicapped. His fitness has to be taken on trust having not been seen for 274 days but went very well on seasonal reappearance last time round and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He often finds trouble and might be one of those types who is just constantly unlucky, so reuniting him with Martin Dwyer, who was on board for his last success, could be no bad thing. Rock A Doodle Doo is well-handicapped, being easily capable of running to 104 or so in this sort of strongly run handicap, with conditions no problem and available at double-figure odds, he’s definitely worth a bet.  The yard’s current slight slump is a little worrying, but Oriental Scot for that stable ran very well this week (would have won with a better draw) and losing runs are always going to occur with a fairly small pool of horses. Hopefully this one can end that slump, and he has plenty in his favour to do so today and I’d be backing him up until the 8/1 mark.

Bets

14:05 Newmarket – Rock A Doodle Doo; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog) 

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