LSB – Saturday 11th May

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First off, I should apologise for the lack of updates since Tuesday.  I was intending to back a couple of selections but for a few different reasons (usually missing the price overnight), betting opportunities have been a bit thin on the ground. The last selection came in the form of Laudation, who although drifting out to 30.0 on Betfair, finished second. He just ran into one that was much better handicapped but it was serious frustrating, especially as I back win-only and I backed him again before the off at much bigger odds on the exchanges.  The race panned out perfectly being run at a breakneck gallop and it was a real missed opportunity, but not one we could do too much about, as the winner had plenty in hand on the day. Lots of racing for Saturday and I’ve got involved with a fair few races, some selections coming at big prices while others shorter. Good luck if you decide to follow and best of luck for any other bets you may have today.

Not much depth to this maiden and Fantasy Justifier showed enough on debut to look like a decent sprinter and unless a debutante has plenty of ability, I’ll be very surprised to see the Ronald Harris trained runner out of the first two. He was green as grass on debut at Bath but caught my eye with a strong mid-race move that displayed that he had plenty of speed and knew his job. His effort petered out at the one-pace towards the end of the race but there was enough there to suggest he has plenty of ability and with a sprint pedigree like the one he possesses (related to horses such as Tax Free), it would be very disappointing to not see him come on significantly for the outing. To be honest, I was hoping they’d pitch him in a better race than this as I think he’s got the potential to be quite good but in a race such as this, he’s definitely still worth a bet. Of his five rivals, Sartori and Urban Dreamer have run to a fair level of form, the former finishing ahead of our selection on debut but I do think that ours has more scope to improve and that isn’t factored into the price. Red Oasis was smashed up in the market before being withdrawn and with Ryan Moore booked he’s respected. Cool Bahamian has a decent pedigree too but will likely come on for the run, whilst Movie Magic is best watched from this stable in juvenile events. Fantasy Justifier should be favourite for me and when writing this originally last night, I expected prices more like 5/2, so to see prices on the board such as what they are now, he’s worthy of some strong support.

Smarty Socks loves it round Ascot over the 7f trip and although his reappearance effort wasn’t great on paper, he was given a funny ride and I’m willing to give him a chance in this big handicap, a sort of race that he’s had plenty of experience in and off this sort of handicap mark, he should be more than capable of playing a big part in. He is a 9yo now which begs the question whether he is just in decline but he showed enough form last season to suggest the spark was still there, even though he only managed one victory, in a Conditions event at York. He started 2012 off a handicap rating of 102 and that had fallen to one of 94 by the end of the campaign but efforts such as this penultimate run of 2012 at Newmarket suggests that the vast majority of the ability remained and that a big handicap was still a possibility.

If Smarty Socks was to win a big handicap, it almost certainly would be either over this C&D or at York. He acts particularly well here at Ascot, winning off a rating of 95 back in 2011 and he always shapes well at this track, just as long as the ground is decent. A deluge of rain would put me off significantly here and I think they’ll pull him out if it rains significantly anyway (he’s entered in a race at Doncaster on Monday). His Haydock reappearance will have to be forgiven but he was held-up well off the pace, not asked for his effort until the race was gone and was sent very wide to make his challenge. It wasn’t the greatest of rides and he’s been dropped 2lbs in the meantime. The talented David Bergin takes off 5lbs now and effectively running off a mark of 86, over his ideal C&D and in a race that plays to his strengths.  I think this could be Smarty Socks last real chance to pick up a big prize, but one is capable of doing and at huge prices, he’s worthy of interest.

Woody Bay reappeared this season with a promising effort in a fair 3yo handicap and is taken to score in a similar sort of race now, with that race under his belt. The James Given trained gelding is yet to win from his six starts but has showed ability on plenty of occasions, finishing second twice last season (nothing particularly wrong with his attitude in either, just running into one too good) and although he ended last season on a bit of a sour note, his 2013 debut was much more promising. He was extremely weak in the market but ran a really solid race, not given a hard time once beaten but running on into fifth, five and three quarter lengths behind the winner. Those who finished towards the front of that race look sure to be capable of much better things and it was a good effort from Woody Bay in the circumstances. The way he finished suggested that he’d come on significantly for the outing as he just stuck on at the one pace after looking a threat in the final two furlongs.

With a run under his belt and fitness no longer an issue, I’m hopeful of a much more positive run. The jockey booking of Graham Lee is very positive, especially when riding for this yard (7/28 riding 3yo’s from the James Given stable since transferring to the flat) and he’s a much more dynamic jockey than that of James Sullivan who was on board Woody Bay last time out. The selection has been dropped a further 2lbs and I think this is a handicap mark he can win off, especially looking at some of his juvenile form alongside the promise of his latest start. The main issue is that he may ‘run into one’ that is more progressive, given the nature of three year old handicaps but nothing here looks massively well-in and it looks a fairly open heat. Any rain at Nottingham (it is forecast) won’t harm Woody Bay at all as he form on softer surfaces and I’m willing to take a chance at these prices, as it seems to me that he’s been forgotten about in the betting due to their been stables represented such as Hannon, Johnston, Knight and Varian who are much bigger names and have horses that have ‘potential’ to improve on their handicap marks. However, I don’t think this is particularly the case in this instance.

Plenty have gone to the poorhouse backing Mon Brav in recent seasons as he always seems to shape like that he should be winning decent sprint handicaps but for one reason or another, just doesn’t. However, Thirsk is arguably his favourite track, he nearly always goes well fresh and has fallen to such a tempting mark and down in grade that he’s well worth taking a chance on, especially given his price is much bigger than I was expecting. A frustrating sort for Brian Ellison, he was operating off handicap marks in the 80s in the early part of 2012 and held his form quite well during the early part of the campaign, which obviously bodes well for us considering we’re taking a chance on him first time out. He really enjoys Thirsk, having a record here of 11347. The seventh placed finish being over 7f (not his trip, hampered early on anyway) and this sprinting distance around this track is sure to suit. I’ve been a bit perplexed with connections trying to make him a 7f horse as I think it is obvious that he’s a sprinter who just needs a good pace to chase. I presume the fact that he often stays on well over 6f gives them the impression that he needs further but I don’t agree.

Today, he drops to the 0-75 grade and although this is a competitive handicap, he’s got a high draw which is traditionally the best place to be at Thirsk. My theory is that the pace around him will come from Spykes Bay, who will be lit up with the first time headgear and that should give him a good tow into the race. Mon Brav nearly always goes well fresh, recording RPR’s on seasonal reappearance of 85, 65 and 79 in the past three seasons. Brian Ellison continues to have his string in decent knick and I expected Mon Brav to be plenty shorter, so even taking into account his tendency to get going too late, his form round this venue makes him too difficult to go unbacked.

Backing Ellaal might seem tedious considering he has shown virtually zero since joining Ruth Carr and the presence of his stable-mate in Cono Zur might compromise his chance somewhat, but, I’ve long thought this horse was capable of winning a handicap at some stage at this trip and given that I think the potential for rain to fall could work in his favour, alongside the fact that the step up in distance from 7f will suit on all known evidence, he’s worthy of support today and to definitely keep an eye on in the future. He’s an ex Shadwell horse who won in game fashion over 7f back in 2011, shaping like he had a serious future in handicaps. Things didn’t pan out that way last season, barely beating a rival on three starts. However, he did run a couple of races which suggested ability remained, such as when 8th of 13 at Nottingham last October. He faded late on (will have needed the run) and I thought that he could go on to run well in some all-weather contests over the winter. However, he was sold to Ruth Carr for £11,000 and on the face of things, that looks like money down the drain.

I’m not one to give up on a horse too easily and I don’t think that he has been seen to best effect this season. He was entitled to come on for the outing on his first start when given a positive ride, especially as all of Ruth Carr’s have needed their first run in 2013. His last racecourse appearance at Redcar was less easy to excuse, but I don’t think patient tactics suit him and he seems one whose mind you need to make up for him. 7f on quick turf is plenty sharp enough as well when held-up, so I’d think there was potential for there to be something more to come from him. He should be fully wound-up for a start, the step back in trip will suit and the forecast rain I think will also help his cause too, as he doesn’t seem too happy on fast ground and his action suggests a bit of cut will help. Given he was beaten so far last time it does seem ridiculous to suggest he can win, but, given a more positive ride (tracking the leaders) over a more suitable trip and down dramatically in grade, I think he’s got a much bigger chance than his outsider odds suggest. He’ll win a race this season I’m sure and I think there’s enough to suggest that it’s worth chancing that it might be today.

 

Saturday Selections

13:45 Lingfield – Fantasy Justifier; 3pts @ 7/1 William Hill

15:50 Ascot  – Smarty Socks; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365

17:05 Nottingham – Woody Bay; 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365, Coral, William Hill

18:15 Thirsk – Mon Brav; 1pt @ 15/2 BetVictor

19:45 Thirsk – Ellaal; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365, William Hill

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LSB – Tuesday 7th May

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Bank Holiday Monday’s are often a punting graveyard and that was the case for us yesterday, with neither selection making the frame. Petaluma never really threatened even though the race was run to suit, and I’m not really sure what caused her poor effort. Aerodynamic was beaten by the ground as the race was run to suit, and the way he stayed on suggested that his turn wasn’t far away. Back on ‘good’ or softer ground, over a mile and perhaps down in grade will see him in a much better light.

I wasn’t going to have a bet today as the racing is very poor but one caught my eye at Yarmouth in the 3yo Handicap. Laudation showed ability in sprint maidens and also when upped to 7f but hasn’t made the transition to handicaps successfully. However, I’m expecting better now switched to a straight track and back down in trip, he ought to go well under an extremely talented young rider. Laudation has a decent sprint pedigree, related to many winners at the trip and that pedigree would suggest he would continue to improve with racing. He was sent off favourite on handicap debut 53 days ago, when running over 7f and he never really went a yard that day, but his prominence in the market suggested that connections believed that his mark is a workable one. Not seen since, it may mean that a problem has been found and it is to be hoped that the break will have freshened him up. Although today’s handicap is a fair one, Laudation will be suited by the straight track more so than Lingfield, especially as he can take a while to get going, and I don’t think the bend at the all-weather venue where he has previously done all his racing suits ideally. Although there’s a few here from fashionable yards, William Jarvis has a good record with his 3yo’s in recent seasons, running at 17% , accounting for 6/8 of his course successes in the past five seasons. Robert Tart takes off 5lbs and although his skills are well publicised by now, there’s still plenty of milage in following him. Off effectively a rating of 63, Laudation should go really well especially as he had hinted in a couple of his maidens that he could go on to be a horse rated much higher.

Tuesday’s Selection

16:20 Yarmouth – Laudation; 1pt @ 12/1 Coral, Stan James

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LSB – Monday 6th May

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We had another winning day on Sunday with sole selection in Sun Central just getting up in the dying strides, advised at 11/2 (SP of 4/1). The race wasn’t really run to suit either and I think we can expect better once tried in a more strongly run race.  On the other hand, there’s still a small question mark regarding whether he would stay in a properly run race, the way he finished suggested it wouldn’t be an issue.

Bank Holiday Racing is very often quite poor and today is no real exception. A six runner event hardly looks ideal for a horse who can be very keen in the early parts of the race but there should be a good pace on, with two or three here who can make the running and Petaluma shaped with real promise in a much better race on seasonal reappearance at Newbury and she returns to the scene of her only win to date. Her record is hardly inspiring (1/13) but she never hardly runs a bad race and she’ll come on significantly for her seasonal reappearance,  as she travelled really well on the outside and then wasn’t given a tough time towards the end of the race, the likely reason being that she wasn’t quite 100% fit yet. That run will have brought her on significantly and if she can replicate her victory at this venue last October, she’ll be quite difficult to beat. That was off a 4lb lower mark but she should continue to improve now that connections have found the key to her (staying trips). With potential pace angles such as Callisto Moon, L Frank Baum and Red Orator likely wanting to get on with it, it should mean she has a good pace to chase that will help her settle. Her current price seems a bit prohibitive but there have been a couple of non-runners this morning and I still think there’s some mileage in her price, as I’d have her at 11/4 in this depleted field.

I’ve a couple of doubts about the ground regarding Aerodynamic but he’s well-handicapped now and he’s surely going to be well-backed and win within the next couple of starts, so although today might not be ‘the day’, he’s worth backing especially at these sorts of prices.  A winner off 1lb higher last August at Nottingham (over a mile, good ground), he has not shown the same form since off his revised marks but was evidently thought good enough to take a race on his seasonal reappearance, as he was very strong in the betting throughout the day. However, he never went a yard and was well-beaten. His subsequent outings don’t look particularly appealing on the face of things but he was given a huge amount to do on both starts and although the selection likes to be held-up off the pace,  he stood no chance of making that sort of ground up in either contest, the latter coming in a race won from the front.

Although I have doubts about quick ground, especially as most of his best form has come on softer surfaces, his action has always suggested that it shouldn’t be a problem and the majority of the tasks he’s been set in recent years when encountering quicker ground have been extremely tough anyway. It may be a case of having to wait until he drops into a 0-70 but the race today should be run to suit with a few who like to be up with the pace, the stiff 7f will be fine and it’s not a particularly strong handicap for the grade as well. Only minimum stake stuff, but one to keep in mind for the future if today doesn’t quite go to plan.

Monday Selections

15:10 Bath – Petaluma; 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365, Stan James, William Hill

17:30 Beverley – Aerodynamic; 1pt @ 20/1 Stan James, William Hill

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LSB – Sunday 5th May

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Saturday saw a winner for the blog with Norse Blues (advised at 8/1) just holding on. He was well-backed in the run up to the race and was given a positive ride from the front. We could be said to be a little fortunate as the eventual third was extremely lucky in-running and would have surely gone very close if getting a clear run. Those are the breaks. The other two selections were well-beaten, with Bandolier getting worked up in the stalls but never really showing up that well. He’ll probably have to be involved in a very weak maiden or nursery handicaps to get off the mark. Escape to Glory was easy to back all day and was being shoved along from quite an early stage. However, 1f out he looked to have every chance and was only run out of things early. He isn’t far away from playing a big hand in a sprint handicap and he’s one I’ll be following.

Again, some good racing from Newmarket but I think betting opportunities are limited from that meeting, with my initial fancy in Fennell Bay being tipped by Pricewise. I’ve found one selection that I feel to be incorrectly priced, and although quite short, I believe it should be a strong favourite. That horse is Sun Central, who bombed out on his last start in 2012 but had previously looked like a very progressive animal. That aforementioned run had plenty of excuses and came in a strong heat, and he’s almost certain to improve for the step up to 1m6f, so he looks a good bet today with the strong support for Mysterious Man ensuring a decent price is available on our charge. The William Haggas trained 4yo is lightly-raced with only six starts to date, winning two of them. On his penultimate outing, he ran a good field in a Shergar Cup race over 1m4f at Ascot ragged, winning by one length and looking like an obvious candidate to improve further when stepped up in trip.  He didn’t show anything on his last start in 2012, but was drawn wide and had to use up a lot of energy to get into a fair racing position, so I think you can excuse it.

Sun Central hasn’t yet run at 1m6f but looks suited to the trip, having the physical attributes of a constant galloper and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree too.  He’s beautifully bred and is surely better than a 92 rated horse, especially based on his first Ascot performance and other starts on his 2012 campaign. Fitness has to be taken on trust and due to his size, it’s plausible it may take him time to get fit. That being said, the William Haggas stable are in very good form of late, having had seventeen runners in the past two weeks, with seven winning and a further six finishing in the places. He obviously has his yard going great guns and I just think a price of 11/2 or 5/1 is far too big for a progressive animal such as this one. I had him at around 7/2 in this field and the main reason this price still exists is that Mysterious Man has been so well-backed. That one is respected but I’m not sure he’ll enjoy the fast ground and Sun Central just looks to have the potential to be rated over three figures this season, so I’m happy to take my chances at his current odds.

Sunday Selections

14:20 Salisbury – Sun Central; 1pt @ 11/2 Stan James

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LSB – Saturday 4th May

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A distinct lack of posts over the last few months and I can only apologise. I’ve been exceptionally busy with other projects in the run up to Cheltenham and Aintree and I’ve had to put blogging on the back-burner. My twenty to follow worked out quite well in the end from a results point of view, many of those listed going on to win (I’ll do a full break-down at some point). Personally, I’ve only had around six or seven bets in April and if anyone follows me on Twitter (@joshfletch) – they’ll have seen that I’ve been consistently hitting the post with some big priced places, but no winners! I cannot promise I’ll be backing blogging regularly, but I’ve decided to do some quick write-ups for Saturday, where’s there is a huge amount of decent racing. In my typical style though, I’ve looked away from the big races to find some value.

Norse Blues - Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images Europe

Norse Blues – Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images Europe

A competitive handicap for the track in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and a big prize on offer, which should ensure that most of these will be fully fit and ready to put up a big effort. Norse Blues has often promised to become a lot better than he actually has shown in reality but is in good hands now with David Barron and didn’t stand much of a chance on his latest start in the Spring Cup at Newbury considering how that race panned out for him. Back in an easier race, with Graham Gibbons on board, he looks set for a big effort. The selection won off a mark of 85 last season when under the care of Sylvester Kirk over the mile trip and showed up well in good/fast ground handicaps off higher marks throughout the majority of his 2012 campaign. On the face of things there, it looked like the handicapper might have caught up with him, but his effort in the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket was extremely promising and I think that indicated there was definitely more to come from him at some point.

Having transferred to David Barron, who is obviously capable of improving one, he’s now of interest in this sort of race. As mentioned earlier, his Newbury reappearance (when strong in the market) was promising enough, just being too keen in the early stages on ground that might have been too soft for him anyway. He was rightfully given an easy time of it when the race was gone and that should have put him spot on today. Norse Blues loves these types of big field handicaps on decent ground and although he isn’t one for maximum confidence today, especially considering the likes of Two for Two could well be a Group Horse in waiting, the selection has always shaped as if he could run to a mid-90 handicap mark level of form, and he’s a little bit of value at his current odds

I don’t usually playing in 2yo Maidens unless I’m on the track, as I find it difficult to get enthused and there’s obviously a lot of guesswork that has to go into things. However, although the Richard Hannon favourite is obviously respected with his string going so well, I thought the debut run of Bandolier was full of promise and he’s value today if Thunder Strike isn’t quite as good as the market suggests he could be. The selection was easy to back on debut at Nottingham, with the penny only dropping when the race was already gone but he stayed on particularly nicely and looked a sure-thing to improve hugely from that outing. This race is of a similar level to that one and although you have to give Richard Hannon’s runner a huge amount of respect, prices around 3/1 or 7/2 mark for Richard Fahey’s runner are just too big. Other big yards such as Brian Ellison (not known for debut winners) and Tom Dascombe (runner showed nil on debut) arealso respected but I’d rather take a chance on one that looks to have a fair amount of ability and has already shown it on the track.

There’s also a fair sprint race at Doncaster, where these big-field sprint handicaps are a tough puzzle to solve at the best of times. The Michael Dods trained Escape to Glory was very weak in the market on his seasonal reappearance which suggested that the run was needed (even though the yard were in good form) and that’s exactly how he shaped, and he was not given a tough time of things throughout. With that run under his belt, back racing on a straight track (his Pontefract run was the first time he’s been round a bend) and this sort of race being more his preference, he should be capable of outrunning these massive odds. Escape to Glory was sold to current connections for a huge looking 72,000gns and they went to some lengths to get him. He was a winner off a rating of 85 at Haydock on quick ground over 6f towards the back-end of the campaign and showed mostly good form in big-field sprint handicaps during 2012. Although a winner over 7f, he always looked like a sprinter who needs a big field to show his best and it was surprising that he was so weak in the market last time out, given the hefty price-tag and his trainer being in such good form through the first few weeks of the season. The selection was held-up throughout and never landed a blow and looked (to me at least) that there were other targets further down the line. He drops in grade today (0-90) and although there’s a slight suspicion that he we may have to wait until he drops in grade even further to see the best of him, especially as all his best form last season came in 0-85s. A fair few efforts of his 2012 form suggested he always looked capable of defying this sort of higher handicap rating at some point. The market drift this morning is also a worry – but the fact is that at this big price, I feel happy in taking a chance on him and following him on his next few outings. The distinct lack of pace across the field will inconvenience many much more than Escape to Glory and granted some luck, he’ll go well.

Saturday Selections

16:35 Thirsk – Norse Blues; 1pt @ 8/1 BetVictor

17:40 Thirsk  - Bandolier; 1pt @ 10/3 Stan James

18:45 Doncaster – Escape to Glory; 1pt @ 25/1 William Hill

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LSB – Horses to Follow

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Longshot Betting – Horses to Follow in early 2013

sonofflicka

As the weather has taken a dastardly turn for the worse in recent days, betting opportunities on the turf have been few or far between. The polytrack will take centre stage for the next few days but this break gives people the ideal chance to have a good look at some past results and get prepared for future battles with the bookmakers, whether it be at the long-awaited Cheltenham Festival or at a small all-weather meeting.

It is probably madness on my part to “mark my card” for what I’ll be most probably backing over the next few months but I’m pretty bored, been kept awake by Foxes trying to find their mate (unsurprisingly I live in an urban area) and generally, I thought it would be interesting on a personal level to see how well the horses from this list get on. I personally recommend using the “GG-Alert” feature found at http://www.gg.com/alert/. You’ll need to register but it is well worth it and the alert e-mails get sent at 5pm the day before the race. ATR and Sporting Life also have a similar service.

I hope the above may have been interesting, useful or just a good reference for any future form study you may have. If you have any feedback, get in touch via the comments below or drop me a tweet @joshfletch 

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Al Khan - Violet Jordan

Claimed out of Peter Chapple-Hyam’s stable by Mick Easterby late last year after a dreadful three year old campaign (promising Juvenile),He was on the well trodden path of becoming well-handicapped, punted in and winning but this obviously went awry when claimed by well-known gambling owner Stephen Arnold. Will be difficult to gauge when he’s “off” but has been running fairly well of late and his turn won’t be too far away once the yard fully gauge how much ability remains

Verdict: Probably not a punting proposition to be honest but worthy of attention when running over 6f and dropping in grade. His first go’s in 0-70′s/0-65′s/0-60′s will be the best time to catch him.

Balthazar King – Philip Hobbs

Cheltenham Festival winner in 2012 when winning the Cross-Country Chase, followed this up by winning on reappearance in a handicap off a mark of 139 on ground that would have been almost too soft for him. Followed that up with a cracking effort over the X-Country Fences in a handicap but is almost certainly best caught fresh and on good ground. Not seen since ( has been entered in a couple of big handicaps but was taken out).

Verdict: Almost certainly at his best when coming off a break and if going to the Festival with the X-Country race in mind he’ll be an obvious force to be reckoned with – however I’ve backed him for the Grand National, and I just hope that connections go straight to Aintree. He’s a bold jumper, handles the likely good ground on offer and will surely take to the fences. Stays all day and at prices of 50/1 or above on the exchanges, he’s worthy of a few quid in the ante-post market. But backing when he’s fresh and on a sound surface is likely good advice.

Ballypatrick - Mick Channon

Ex-Henrietta Knight inmate, now with Mick Channon, he always looked like he had a future over fences and ran well behind a Nicky Henderson hotpot at Plumpton in November. After an eye-catching run at Newbury (held-up, challenged late, given too much to do under a hand ride) he was well-backed dropping in grade at Ludlow. He found that test too sharp though as he was under pressure a fair way out, and will surely be better granted a stiffer test.

Verdict: Evidently thought capable of much better given the market support he had last time out, he’ll pay his way over stiffer 2m4f trips or over further. Worthy of support when running in 0-120′s. A mark of 118 is well within his compass and won’t be long in getting off the mark over fences.

Bubbly Braveheart - Pat Phelan

Came a long way down the handicap in 2011/2012 before being well-backed over his ideal C&D. Ran an absolute shocker and wasn’t seen throughout the majority of 2012. Reappeared last week at Lingfield and ran a respectable race given the absence, staying on nicely and shaping as if he was on the right track once time.

Verdict: Needs 1m2f around Lingfield or Kempton to be at his best and worthy of interest once running over that trip. Seems to go best for Ian Mongan, also should point out that races where there is plenty of pace may not be ideal for him (likes to be towards the front). The sort of horse who will be a big price in the morning and definitely worthy of a small bet each time he runs over 1m2f with Mongan on board.

Captain Sunshine - Emma Lavelle

Quirky type who refused to race earlier in the season but got back to something like fair form when completing a hurdle at Cheltenham in November. Would have gone exceptionally close had he not fallen at the last in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. Has gone up 4lbs for that run.

Verdict: Not one to have too much faith in given his behaviour but will almost certainly be playing a big hand in a very good handicap hurdle in the not too distant future. Seems the type to have a couple of quiet runs before making a good stab of things at the Festival. Coral Cup contender but worth a second look in any Festival race.

Celtic Sixpence - Peter Salmon

A winner for Noel Quinlan off a handicap mark of 73 back in 2011, she spent a long time in the wilderness but has been showing a fair bit more on her past couple of starts, not least when badly hampered when beaten 3 lengths on her last start.

Verdict: Well-handicapped on her best form and ready to strike. She looks an ideal candidate for a 0-70 race at Wolverhampton in the not too distant future. If participating in a higher grade on her next couple of starts and finishing down the field, she’ll surely be extremely competitive if getting into a 0-65 over the aforementioned conditions. One to keep a very close eye on for her trainer who is now starting to have some success.

Fluctuation - Ian Williams

Fibresand specialist who has been seriously inconvenienced by the closure of Southwell over recent weeks. He wasn’t seen through April 2012 > December and showed promise on his seasonal reappearance when not given a hard time of things. Completely bombed out on his latest start but polytrack isn’t his bag and he’s probably best forgiven that run.

Verdict: Now eligible for 0-65′s, if Southwell ever re-opens he will be a force to be reckoned with in that grade over 7f-1m. Ian Williams is a tricky one to catch right but Fluctuation showed enough on his penultimate start to suggest connections still think there’s a race or two within him. Back him at Southwell in a 0-65.

Frock - Sylvester Kirk

Caught the attention of the stewards last year when given a ridiculous looking ride by Jamie Mackay at Kempton over 7f, she failed to build on the promise of that start but she wasn’t seen all summer and she showed plenty when staying on well over an inadequate trip when last seen in November. Was declared to run in December but was taken out of the race (lame).

Verdict: Will almost certainly be capable of winning a race but guessing when will be tricky enough. Certainly she’ll need a strong jockey on board and to run in a weak grade but a 0-55 over a mile or in a well-run 7f race will definitely suit and she’s handicapped to strike if she ever reaches the track again. Will be likely best watched if Lee Newnes takes the ride after her break.

Gabbiano – Jeremy Gask

Caught the eye a couple of times and a gamble on him at Kempton was foiled last season by horrendous luck in-running. Didn’t build on that immediately after but returned to action this winter with a promising effort and still looks on a workable handicap mark.

Verdict:  Obviously thought capable of better and will surely come on for the run. Does have the problem that he sometimes doesn’t finish his races off and a good pace to chase could put the race in his lap. Will likely be not much of a price but 6f around Kempton will be more than suitable given an opportunity in a realistic grade.

Green Mitas - Frank Sheridan

Still a maiden after 18 starts but obviously has ability at low levels. Hasn’t been seen to best effect since a solid run in a handicap off 64 back in November but could never get involved given too much to do last time and his time in a handicap surely isn’t too far away given a more forceful ride.

Verdict: Doesn’t go down without a fight but he hasn’t been in very good form on on the bare form of his latest efforts. However, his handicap mark is slowly dropping and he’s one to keep an eye on until dropping into a 0-62 or 0-60. I think he’s definitely capable of picking up a weak race such as those and might be a decent price.

Kazlian - David Pipe

Ex-French hurdler who put in a big performance in the Fred Winter last season when finishing 4th. Hasn’t hit those heights this season but it was reported that he had a rushed preparation and he seems the sort who might need a couple of starts to get fully into gear. His latest start in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot wasn’t devoid of promise either.

Verdict: On the bare form looks flattered by his Fred Winter form but I’m convinced there’s a big race in this gelding at some point this season. He ran well for a long way last time out and given the reports about a rushed preparation for this season, it surely won’t be too long before finding his stride. I’m not too sure what race he’ll go for at the Festival if lining up but he’s definitely one to keep an eye on before then, especially as a rating of 132 is very much within his scope. One worth backing on his next couple of starts.

Life of Laughter - Willie Musson

Bumper winner on debut (over 1m6f) who has found life tough in flat handicaps since showing promise in Maidens. Hold-up tactics have often been used though and given his NH Flat victory came from the front, will no doubt be seen to best effect when more positive tactics are used. 1m4f seemed inadequate in maidens and surely needs more of a test. Dropped to a mark of 49.

Verdict: Declared Monday over 2 miles and given a respectable price, needs serious consideration in backing. Drop in the handicap means there’s not many other places to take him before potentially risking him falling through the floor in terms of handicapping and given he seems to have resented hold-up tactics, a more prominent race position over this stiffer trip looks obvious. Back next time.

Little Garcon - Robert Cowell

Fallen a long way in the weights since picking up a 6f Ascot handicap off a mark of 90 – this sprinter hasn’t shaped in too bad a form since joining this yard but evidently needs a bit more help by the handicapper for him to become competitive. Wasn’t seen to his best when sent off 5/1 at Lingfield in November and races haven’t panned out ideally subsequently for his hold-up tactics.

Verdict: Still has plenty of ability and no doubt that Robert Cowell will be capable of getting the best out of him. Probably needs to drop in grade slightly for him to become a backable proposition but a 0-80 handicap which is likely to be strongly run will make him of interest. Entry in a claiming race next week isn’t particularly encouraging but no doubt he’ll win races over the early part of this year given the right sort of test.

Mariet - Suzy Smith

Plenty of stamina in her pedigree but she just doesn’t stay two miles on recent evidence. Had shown promise in two starts at 1m4f after been given contrasting rides on both occasions and capable of better off a lowly mark given ideal conditions.

Verdict: I put her up as a selection last week only for her to be declared a non-runner (reason given was “other). She’s a bit better than her mark of 56 suggests and she’s worthy of small support when tackling 1m4f again. Hopefully, Adam Kirby or a similar well-regarded jockey will be given the ride.

Prince James – Mick Easterby

A winner off a mark of 57 on heavy ground in November, he’s spent his past 3 starts in the doldrums but has been held-up on all these starts and this is hardly ideal for an habitual front-runner. Mark has fallen 7lbs in the meantime.

Verdict: Goes particularly well for an apprentice but more importantly than that, he needs a front-running ride. The potential for a run in a 0-60 will definitely help and he’s one to keep a close eye on when taking part in this grade. Matthew Hopkins seems a likely partner for this race and 6f in a 0-60 would make him an appealing betting prospect. It may however be a point to note that all his recent wins have come off the same rating of 57. Therefore, a run in that grade off that mark would be exceptionally interesting.

Purley Queen - Sylvester Kirk

An easy winner on turf off a handicap rating of 60 back in September, she’s been in the doldrums since but shaped with more promise than the bare form suggested on her penultimate start when set a ridiculous amount to do before running only OK in a plenty hot enough race on the all-weather. Has now dropped back to a rating of 60 on the all-weather.

Verdict:  Not quite sure when this filly will be winning races but looks certain to appreciate some easier tests on the all-weather now that she’s eligible. 7f in a 0-60 will be an appealing enough prospect given suitable strong signals in jockey bookings and yard form.

Shirataki - Peter Hiatt

A fair type for handicaps when rated around the mid-60′s mark but had been struggling for form recently. This obviously has meant a drop in the weights and has shown a bit more on his most recent start, his most promising effort for some time. Interestingly, it was his first start in a 0-60 for some time.

Verdict:  A horse who is likely finding his feet again and now eligible for weaker races than he’d previously been contesting, won’t be long in moving back up the handicap ranks. 1m4f might just be too sharp and a drop in trip wouldn’t go amiss. Kept to a weak enough grade over shorter than 1m4f he’ll be definitely worthy of a wager. Entered in a similar sounding contest within next week.

Son of Flicka - Donald McCain

Landed a monster gamble in the Coral Cup last year, after a season in the doldrums, it’s of no surprise that a similar pattern is emerging this season. When held-up on soft ground, he runs no race. When sitting prominent on better surfaces, he goes extremely well. A series of no shows this season but he’s never at his best under inexperienced handling and he’s just 2lb higher than his Coral Cup success.

Verdict: I’m of the opinion that they can’t be so cheeky and try to land a punt in the Coral Cup again. The Conditionals Hurdle over the same C&D at the Festival might be a target with Henry Brooke a very capable pilot. Again though, the price on these occasions will be prohibitive enough for these connections. Instead, it might be worth supporting him heavily at Aintree IF he shows up at Cheltenham and is held-up or bypasses the meeting altogether. That being said, ignoring him completely at the Festival would be folly if the ground came good and backing him at Cheltenham – having the view in mind that he might be held-up to try and land a punt at Aintree firmly in the forefront of your decsion.

Strongly Suggested - Jonjo O’Neill

Spent a long time in the doldrums running in some extremely competitive races before being dropped in grade last time and been well-backed (6/1 in the morning, went off 11/4). Didn’t show much on that occasion but never really went a yard and the soft ground evidently didn’t suit.

Verdict: Worthy of one more chance when running on better ground in a weaker grade. A well-run affair should be more than probable before supporting if he’s running over 2m.

Volcanic Jack - Tony Coyle

Previously with Tony Carroll – he’d picked up a race for that yard on turf but an experiment with a switch to staying trips had just not worked and had become disappointing. Made his debut for the Coyle stable and this was extremely encouraging, generally unfancied in the market but had every chance 1f out before lack of race fitness probably told.

Verdict: Not one to give up on now in particularly capable hands and a strongly run race over 10f will be ideal, given I’m not particularly sure he finishes well enough to win a strongly run 12f contest. Could well get away with it over the latter trip in a small field but a mark of 62 should be workable given the right campaign.

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LSB – Wednesday 16th January

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Just the one selection for Wednesday, coming from Kempton. Monday was again a frustrating day ut but the writing was on the wall when Bubbly Braveheart went off a price of 25/1 on Betfair and from that stable, it really was a solid indication that they weren’t expecting a great deal. He looked like been well-beaten turning for home but stuck on quite well under a hand ride and will be of interest at some point in the near future when getting his conditions once again. Brief write-up for the sole selection today but hopeful of a big run at a double figure price.

19:15 Kempton

AWESOME ROCK took a step back in the right direction last time out in a much better race than this last time and isn’t badly handicapped by any means on his 4lb lower 2nd at this C&D back in November. Franny Norton is back in the saddle (was riding for the aforementioned runner-up effort) and dropped in grade, over ideal conditions, he’s worthy of a bet even if there are some doubts about the race panning out in his favour. It took a mark of 45 for Awesome Rock to become competitive for the Louise Best stable – but did so in decent fashion when showing plenty of ability when finishing runner-up here in November. Although put up in the handicap, he’s had excuses subsequently which suggest it hasn’t been the hike in weights that has beaten him. He’s got a tendency to be a bit keen early on, alongside the fact they’ve tried him in the mean-time at a trip that was just too sharp. He was beaten almost six lengths last time in a 0-60 over 1m3f but was spotted doing some good late work under a hand ride and he wasn’t ideally positioned throughout, so it’s an effort worth upgrading a little and was a much better effort than that of his penultimate outing. Now dropped into a 0-50 and back up in trip, he has fair enough claims in this grade. Franny Norton gets on with the horse well, and sticks about until the last race (has one ride in the first race), which could be a sign within itself. My one worry is that they may not go quick enough up front, as Awesome Rock needs a good pace to run at and there’s no real confirmed front-runner. It’s a risk but there is obviously 14 runners in this contest which makes a generous gallop more likely, and I’ll take my chances at double figure odds that it occurs. Awesome Rock certainly has the ability to pick up a race off this kind of mark.

19:15 Kempton – Awesome Rock; 1pt @ 14/1 Coral, BetVictor (best odds guaranteed)